Who Exactly Should Get the Slots to Haneda from the US

First off all; sorry for the delay between my posts, but as you can see, this analysis took a crapload of research. Second, I'm proud to announce that I have gained my second follower, the first being myself of course. Thank you Hawk21M, for being the first of many more to come(...I hope). Thirdly, people, if you visit my site and like it, just be sure to leave a brief comment so I know you were here... Anyway, now to the post...




As many of you know, Tokyo's Haneda International Airport was recently opened up to international flights. There are going to be 8 total daily slots awarded from Haneda to the US, 4 on US carriers, 4 on Japanese carriers Previously, international carriers had to serve Narita Airport in the neighboring Chiba prefecture. Why is serving Haneda Airport so attractive??? Well, if you'll just take a look at this wonderful diagram created by my friend Brett at the CrankyFlier, it should be obvious.

The only problem with the proposed service is that the schedules are very poorly timed. Because International Flights are required to operate between 11pm and 7am, meaning that arrivals can work just fine, but departures to US airports result in poor timings for connections. If you take a look at Delta's flight schedule, the flights to the west coast and Honolulu arrive to late for connections to the East Coast. For example, the SEA-HND flights depart in Seattle at 7:25 pm, and arrives the next day at 10 pm, which means a full day of business is lost. The return flight is a midnight departure that arrives in Seattle at 5:10 pm, too late for transcon connections. The same is true for the proposals of all the other airlines. So without further ado, here are the basic details of applications by US airlines:

United Airlines
San Francisco-Tokyo Haneda
1x daily on Boeing 777-200ER 

Continental Airlines
Newark- Tokyo Haneda
1x daily on Boeing 777-200ER 
Guam-Tokyo-Haneda
1x daily on Boeing 767-400ER

Delta Airlines
Seattle- Tokyo Haneda
1x daily on Airbus A330-300 aircraft
Detroit-Tokyo Haneda
1x daily on Boeing 747-400 aircraft
Los Angeles- Tokyo Haneda
1x daily on Boeing 747-400 aircraft
Honolulu-Tokyo Haneda
1x daily on Boeing 747-400 aircraft
(Is anybody else surprised that Delta didn't apply for Atlanta here, as their motto in recent years has seemed to be, "If they aren't willing to fly through Atlanta, the we aren't willing to fly them)

American Airlines

Los Angeles- Tokyo Haneda

1x daily on Boeing 777-200ER aircraft 
New York JFK- Tokyo Haneda
1x daily on Boeing 777-200ER

Hawaiian Airlines

Honolulu-Tokyo Haneda

2x daily on Boeing 767-300ER aircraft

For those of you who have been counting, that's 11 applications for 4 daily slots. Meaning that not all carriers are going to get a slot. For the sake of my replies, I would like to also note that the following routes can support a daily to Haneda, but haven't been applied for by US carriers...

Washington Dulles-Tokyo Haneda

Chicago O'hare- Tokyo Haneda

Since only two Japanese carriers have the aircraft and network to operate HND-US(Japan Airlines-JAL, and ANA) lets assume that each carrier is granted two daily slot pairs each. Now each airline is definitely going to use one daily slot pair to Los Angeles(the most important business market from Tokyo), leaving each airline with one each. At that point, I would expect one route to definitely be operated to Honolulu by ANA, leaving JAL to operate the final route. Normally, I'd say that they'd operate to Honolulu as well, but since American didn't ask for a route to Chicago O'Hare(their largest International gateway), I'm going to assume that JAL will operate this route for them, as the two airlines will soon be granted Anti-Trust Immunity, or ATI across the Pacific. ATI allows carriers to act as one airline, sharing costs, revenues, and rationalizing capacity. In additon, carriers are granted exemption from prosecution under antitrust laws to set schedules and sometimes prices for the public benefit. Continental, United, and ANA will also have ATI across the Pacific. Therefore, I will treat the application as though there are four competitors, Star Alliance, OneWorld, Delta Airlines, and Hawaiian. On that note, here is my response to each of the proposals by US airlines

United 

San Francisco-Tokyo Haneda:

What's Good: United Airlines offers the only true hub on the West Coast through their operations in SFO. San Francisco is a large O&D market, with 273,636 passengers enplaned in 2009. United Airlines provides the best connectivity on the West Coast, with one- stop flights to 27 major business markets across the US. Their 777s are one of two aircrafts to offer First Class Seating to HND

What's Bad: The 777 United is proposing to operate on the route has only 252 seats, vs. the larger Delta aircrafts. Also, the aircraft have no IFE in Economy class (not something the DOT will account for, but I use it to judge), which on long trips really sucks. The aircraft also has the old interiors, which I have heard many a UA frequent flyer complain about. Also, the United brand is consistently rated very poorly among airlines, as I mentioned earlier. 

Result: The route itself and connection opportunities are very strong, but the aircraft and brand are very poor. There is little chance that one of the Japanese airlines will operate this route, but it is necessary. Overall, I'd rate the proposal a 7 out of 10. I'd assume ANA chooses to operate to HNL, a huge Japanese market, over JFK, which can be served by Continental out of EWR, or SFO. So at this point, I will say that this route deserves tentative approval

Continental

Guam- Tokyo Haneda

What's Good: Japanese tourists get a convenient ride to and from Guam, Continental's bottom line improve.

What's Bad: It offers nothing to the vast majority of Americans, as Guam isn't an effective connecting point, and its O&D is skewed towards Japan .

Result: No Way in Hell. This route shouldn't even be awarded in the next round. 1 out of 10.

Newark- Tokyo Haneda

What's Good: This is a route to the second most important Japan-US business destination, and Continental has the strongest hub in the New York airport. Connections are possible up and down the Eastern seaboard, and New Jersey-Tokyo traffic can be shifted onto the route. O&D is strong, with 235,902 passengers enplaned New York-Tokyo on US carriers alone. Traffic from Latin America can be sent through EWR. Continental is a very strong brand, generally tops amongst US airlines in quality. The onboard product of their 777-200ERs is strong as well, with AVOD in all classes, and lie flat seats in Business Class. 

What's Bad: I guess the only qualm, is that there's no First Class on the aircraft. But that's a very minor consideration. 

Result: The New York- Tokyo Haneda market needs at least 1 daily nonstop, and Continental presents the best chance for a viable route. The O&D is huge, and connecting traffic ensures that this flight will always be full. I give this a 9 out of 10, and say that this route should definitely be awarded. 

Hawaiian Airlines

Honolulu-Tokyo Haneda

What's Good: Remember what was said about Guam? Well HNL is much the same, with the exception that HNL offers slightly better connections.

Whats Bad: Guam, verbatim

Result: 2 out of 10, HNL is not a convenient connecting point for much of the US, and Hawaiian doesn't have a great aircraft, with only 18 business class seats. I've also predicted that ANA will serve HNL. SO absolutely NO at this point

American Airlines

New York JFK- Tokyo Haneda

What's Good: American has a very strong frequent flyer base in the New York Area. They have plenty of corporate contracts, with feed from major business destinations. As the dominant carrier at Miami International Airport, they can flow significant traffic MIA-JFK-HND. Dominant carrier from JFK to Sau Paulo as well, with flows GRU-JFK-NRT. American's 3 class 777s offer a very competitive First Class product. 

What's Bad: American is a middle of the pack airline as far as quality goes. As I have previously mentioned, I don't like their onboard product at all, though the 777s do offer IFE. With only 243 seats, American's 777 are the smallest aircraft proposed to HND. The unions could be a potential pitfall, as AA has very poor employee relations, and the pilots have blocked routes such as Dallas-Shanghai before. AA is only the fourth largest airline in the NYC  market, and though they do have feed, the flights are very poorly timed for connections. 

Result: If only American were applying to fly this route, I'd approve it in a heartbeat. But, the small size of AA's operations at JFK (when viewed relative to CO at EWR), is a significant reason to pause. I'll give this route a 7 out of 10, if only because, the New York market needs two routes, and I've already predicted that neither ANA nor JAL will serve it. But, to keep the competitive balance between alliances, I'm going to say that this route should be denied in this round. 

Los Angeles-Tokyo Haneda

What's Good: American Airlines is the single largest carrier at LAX, though they are by no means dominant. LAX is the second largest market from Japan to the US, and the most important business one, with 343,553 passengers enplaned on US carriers in 2009. American's First Class offering to LAX, is the only one, as Delta's 747's are 2 class only. Again, there is IFE on the aircraft.

What's Bad: The stuff I said above about the American brand and unions still applies. American's proposed flights arrive too late in LAX for significant connections American had lower loadfactors on the LAX-Japan routes than United and Delta. 

Result: Since any connections are lost because of the arrival time, we must look at this route purely on O&D. And in that scenario, Delta wins; as they are the dominant carrier on this route, and have been operating it the longest (previously as Northwest Airlines). I've also predicted that JAL operates 1x HND-LAX, making AA's proposal redundant. The proposal nets 7.5 out of 10, but should be denied


Delta Airlines


Detroit- Tokyo Haneda


What's Good: Detroit is the only major connecting hub for which service has been applied for by US airlines. Due to its location, Detroit is convenient for flowing traffic to Tokyo from the Midwest, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. The arrivals to Detroit are timed such, that connections can be offered to the entire Delta domestic network. Detroit has significant business ties to Japan, due to the auto industry. Detroit is also a strong O&D market to Tokyo, with 260,537 passengers enplaned in 2009. Delta's 747-400, is the largest aircraft on any single service, with 403 seats. The aircraft will feature lie-flat seats in business class. As the largest airline in the world, Delta will be able to flow significant traffic through DTW.


What's Bad: Detroit's economy is currently in the doldrums. Delta as well is a middling brand. Detroit is not as large a market as some of the other applications. 


Result: This service provides perhaps the greatest access to Haneda for the majority of the American public. Detroit could potentially be the only US-HND service not to the west coast or New York. This application warrants a 9.5 out of 10, and should definitely be granted. 

Honolulu-Tokyo Haneda


What's Good: Not much, as I covered earlier with Hawaiian Airlines, though HNL is the largest O&D airport to Japan. Delta also, is the largest carrier from HNL to Japan. 


What's Bad: Again, I've already covered this, and Delta is smaller out of HND than Hawaiian


Result: 1 out of 10. If this application is awarded, then the DOT should not be a part of the government. 


Seattle- Tokyo Haneda


What's Good: Seattle is a strong O&D market to Tokyo, with 193,211 passengers enplaned on US airlines in 2009. Combined with Alaska Airlines, whom Delta interlines with, there is significant feed to Seattle from all over the west coast. Seattle is a more convenient airport to transit through than LAX or SFO. Delta's A330-300 is also larger than the other applications' aircraft with 298 seats. Delta's A330 has AVOD as well. 


What's Bad: Again, Delta is a middling brand, and the A330 doesn't have a great business class cabin either. Seattle is a smaller market than any other application. 


Result: I give this application a 4 out of 10, and say that it doesn't warrant a grant in this round.


Los Angeles- Tokyo Haneda


What's Good: I went over a lot of this with my response to American's application, so I'll just make a couple of points. One, Delta is the largest carrier from LAX to Japan. Two, Delta is offering the largest aircraft to and from Los Angeles, with their 747-400.


What's Bad: Delta is a smallish airline at LAX, and they have very little feed (from Alaska Airlines). Also, there will most probably be a lot of competition from Japanese Airlines.


Result: This proposal results a 7.5 out of 10, but in order to keep the competitive balance, SkyTeam needs two frequencies to HND, therefore, this should be the fourth and final route awarded.




OK, to summarize, of the 8 Haneda-US frequencies, 4 will go to Japanese Airlines, which I have predicted will be used as:


2x LAX (ANA, and JAL)
1x ORD (JAL)
1x HNL (ANA)


The four US frequencies I say should be used on:


Los Angeles- Tokyo Haneda
Delta Airlines
1x daily Boeing 747-400


Detroit- Tokyo Haneda
Delta Airlines
1x daily Boeing 747-400


Newark- Tokyo Haneda
Continental Airlines
1x daily Boeing 777-200ER


New York-JFK- Tokyo Haneda
American Airlines
1x daily Boeing 777-200ER


Now, I want to hear what you guys think? Be sure to post your comments